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Thursday, March 17, 2022

Future Prediction Play Part 2

In the last post I talked about my thoughts during service returns, now we swap sides of the court and we are going to serve.  

Personalities come more into play here, names have been changed to protect the guilty innocent.

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Let me see, to whom am I serving?  Ah, yes, it's TopSpin Tommy.  Ok, while his forehand is very good, his back hand is not at the same level.

I'll serve to his backhand, and I want to hit a soft, high, and deep serve with some top spin.  That should make him the most defensive.

Most importantly I need to get the serve in.  I don't want to lose an opportunity to win a point by trying to be clever.  I want a lot of room over the net and a lot of room inside the service court area.  If I don't get it to the backhand I'm ok with that.  Serves are not very important in doubles.  

The serve is good enough and to Tommy's backhand and I'm hoping for a shortish return.  If I get one, I'm going to expect to be at the net soon.  Whether I drop the shot or place it up the middle with some pace depends on how high a bounce I get.  

My dream is that the return is mid court and high, so I can hit a forehand down into the middle of the court.  No, wait, my dream is that Tommy knocks it long.  Ok, I'm behind the service line and ready for anything.

Oops, the service return is deep and back to me, so I'm not going to get to the net quite yet.  (If it looks like it might go long, I will simply play the shot and trust that partner will call the shot out if it's long.)

I'm still in back of the service line, so it's no problem to handle the deep shot.  I don't have to back up to be well placed to hit the third shot.  There are a lot of players who are happy to hit this shot off their back foot or leaning back or after three quick steps to get back behind the service line.  I think it saves a lot of time to remain back of the service line after I or my partner serves and I can hit a better shot more easily.

Now, where to return the third ball?  Tommy has followed his shot up to the kitchen line, so I can't just hit any old shot deep to his side of the court.  Also if Tommy's partner likes to poach, then I would be more careful even if Tommy stayed back.

(If Tommy stays back, and a number of players do, it is worth deciding what to do in that case.  We want to keep Tommy back so our shot choice is a deep shot to his side of the court.  But wait, what will his partner do?  The partner is already at the net and is probably aware that Tommy is back.  If you're in that position, you've got to think about looking to poach.  Because if you were not going to poach then the shot of choice is a high top spin shot somewhat over the middle of the net for safety.  If there is a potential poach, then the ball has to be lower and closer to the sideline.  If a poach is going to happen for sure, then hitting the ball behind the poacher is a good choice.)

So it's a classic situation, the ball will be hit from behind the baseline and there are two defenders at the net.  There are three basic plays here,  drop, drive, or lob.  A lob is out as that would be easy to chase down and I don't practice those often and they are not my best shot.  

Drives are OK, but lack an interesting element to me and I don't hit the ball very hard.  I'll try the drop.  If it's good, partner and I can close to the net quickly.   I should hit this to Tommy, he is probably still moving, which makes the shot more difficult for him.

It is in my interest to slow the point down.  This is more important against good players as I might not be able to out hit them, especially since they are at the net already.  Since I am serving, I'm starting behind in the point, so all my initial actions will be to achieve parity.

Back to the third shot... I let the ball drop a bit because I want to hit up on the ball producing an arcing shot that will fall to Tommy's backhand and I hope will land in the kitchen.  Hitting a chop spin shot that skims the net is ok, but it won't be below the net when it's returned and it it is easy to net that shot.  Also if I over hit it, it will go long.  But if the return shot is hard and low, it might be all I can manage.

If my drop is too deep we will be forced to stay close to the baseline if the opps are on their game, but more usually they will hit the ball back to mid court.  

I can hit the fifth shot even softer as I'm closer to the net and then can continue to close.  These are touch shots and there is no need to panic or hit the balls hard.

The third shot drop is pretty good.  The opponents will not be able to attack, Tommy can't run around this shot, and we can move in a couple of steps and work on the fifth shot.  I'll hit that shot short as well.  If the fifth shot feels good off the paddle, then I move immediately; there is not wait and see.  Our team running forward will add a little pressure to the opponents shot too.

OK, now where will Tommy return the fifth shot?  It should be short and "dink like" if they are good players.  The less experienced they are, the more likely they will hit the ball hard.

 If I had hit it to Tommy's forehand I would be expecting a hard roll shot to the middle.  But he doesn't have that shot on the backhand side.  So I'm expecting a soft to medium shot to the middle but tending to cross court.  Everyone likes to hit the cross court shot, it's easier and if I was sure this was going to be a dink, I would be moving to cover the cross court shot, either moving to the sideline or towards the middle as partner will shift to the sideline.  

It is rare to get the ball back at me.  Though there are a couple of players who prefer that to a cross court shot.  Know who they are!

Since my partner and I are not yet up to the kitchen line, we want to dink the shot back as we are still not favored to win the point.  So hopefully we'll get a shot that can be easily dinked.   Then we'll settle into a dink game, which at the Downs will only last a couple of hits before the inevitable speed up or lob.  So note at this point, I've not seen the 4th shot yet, but I'm thinking about the next couple of shots.  I'm close or at the kitchen line, so the points will have more time for me to move.  

As you close to the kitchen line, it's vital that your paddle is up.  The worst shot from a defensive point of view is the too hard shot.  You have to judge whether to hit it, you might not be able to duck it, etc.  But if your paddle is up, it will be easier to block.  If you get a dink, you'll have time to drop your paddle and dink back.  

As an added bonus, if they pop it up, your paddle will be nicely placed to hit down on the ball and maybe end the point.

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So there is what I try to consider as I serve and seek the net.  Most of this is just reactions and having played a bunch.  More of it is a question of whom you are playing.  Players get tired, get lazy if they are behind or ahead, watch for those that will not run up as they return the serve.  They deserve to be punished!  I was playing with Dan today and I think I made a remark about being up at the net asap.  The next point he was there  and easily put away a high ball.  "Is that why I'm here?" he asked with a grin.  "Yup," I replied.


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